The Delphi technique is a process by which a group of experts provides
independent forecast assumptions via questionnaires. The forecasts are
then revised until a composite emerges that incorporates many of the assumptions.
Advantages include:
- Allows participants to remain anonymous
- Inexpensive
- Free of social pressure, personality influence and individual dominance
- Allows sharing of information and reasoning among participants
- Conducive to independent thinking and gradual formulation
- Can be used to reach consensus among groups hostile to each other
Disadvantages include:
- Judgments are those of a selected group of people and may not
be representative
- Tendency to eliminate extreme positions and force a middle-of-the-road
consensus
- More time-consuming than the group process method
- Should not be viewed as a total solution to forecasting
- Requires skill in written communication
- Requires adequate time and participant commitment (about 30-45 days)
